We’ve got another exciting Southwest Division matchup on the NBA schedule this Martin Luther King Jr. Day as the New Orleans Pelicans and the Dallas Mavericks are set to tip at 2:30 p.m. ET on Monday at American Airlines Center. Dallas is 23-17 overall and 12-9 at home, while New Orleans is 24-16 overall and 12-8 on the road. The Pelicans have won and covered the spread in three of their last four head-to-head meetings with the Mavs, including a 2-1 record already this season.
However, both teams have been profitable against the spread in 2023-24, with New Orleans going 23-16 against the number and Dallas going 22-18. This time around, New Orleans is favored by 4 points in the latest Mavericks vs. Pelicans odds, and the over/under at 236 points. Before entering any Pelicans vs. Mavericks picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 112-62 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning well over $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on New Orleans vs. Dallas. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for the game:
Mavericks vs. Pelicans spread: Pelicans -4
Mavericks vs. Pelicans over/under: 236 points
Mavericks vs. Pelicans money line: Mavericks: +144, Pelicans: -171
Mavericks vs. Pelicans picks: See picks here
What you need to know about the Mavericks
Dallas has been without Luka Doncic for the last two games because of an ankle injury and after defeating the Knicks on Thursday without the superstar guard, cracks began to show against the Pelicans on Saturday. The Mavericks lost 118-108 at home against New Orleans and now the franchises will run it back in the same building just two days later as part of today’s NBA on MLK Day action. Doncic is listed as doubtful for this one.
Kyrie Irving had 33 points, six assists and five rebounds in the defeat while Tim Hardaway Jr. and Derrick Jones Jr. both scored 24 points for Dallas. However, the Mavericks were hammered 44-34 on the glass and gave up 14 offensive rebounds to an incredibly short-handed Pelicans roster.
What you need to know about the Pelicans
The Pelicans were missing Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum in Saturday’s win in Dallas but still had seven players in their nine-man rotation reach double-figures in scoring and got an uplifting performance from Jordan Hawkins. The rookie out of UConn scored 34 points and New Orleans won comfortably as 5.5-point underdogs.
Williamson (quad), Ingram (Achilles) and McCollum (ankle) are all listed as probable to return to the lineup on Monday. That trio for New Orleans is averaging 63.1 points per game this season and should give the Pelicans a significant boost.
Key Betting Info
With Doncic (ankle) out, the Mavericks will be looking to replace 33.6 points, 9.1 assists and 8.1 rebounds per game from their lineup. Irving (25.1 ppg) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (17.6 ppg) are the only other two players on the roster this season averaging more than 11 points per game.
Some of the betting trends to consider are:
The Pelicans are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games when the spread was between -5.5 to -2.5.
The Pelicans are 13-8-1 against the spread in their last 22 games vs teams that win more than 55 percent of games.
The Mavericks are 3-3 against the spread in their last 6 games as a home dog.
How to make Mavericks vs. Pelicans picks
The model has simulated Mavericks vs. Pelicans 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.